Well, she was an American girl raised on promises

It’s the 4^th of July, Independence Day, a Federal holiday commemorating the ratification of the Declaration of Independence by the Second Continental Congress on July 4, 1776, which established the United States of America. Last night, the House passed Trump’s “Beautiful Bill”, the one that tightens border security, cuts taxes, and lowers social security net spending. How I think many voters in this country would love to see a piece of legislation with the same ambition put before parliament. Even if it was, the probability would appear zero that the government, despite its overwhelming majority, would manage to get it passed.

I think we are all aware of what happened on Wednesday at Prime Minister’s question time, as Starmer failed to back his Chancellor when asked. The pound and treasury market fell in response, which was probably as much about the possibility of a change at No. 10 as it was about the likelihood that it became clear this week the government is unable to reduce spending, as it failed to find support for its original bill to cut welfare benefits by £5 billion. As a result, the likelihood the market fears that there will be only one alternative which is higher taxes and a greater need for borrowing.

At the start of the week, I suggested that I expected the Fed to cut interest rates at the end of July rather than wait until September. However, I think that idea may have gone out the window yesterday, as a stronger-than-expected employment report sent two-year yields higher. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% as non-farm payrolls came in ahead of expectations. Revisions also showed that hiring was stronger in prior months than previously thought, and as a result, US stocks climbed to new highs. The market speculators reduced the odds of a cut in September to just 67%, according to Bloomberg. Trump may be getting his way on most things, but bouncing his Fed chair into cutting interest rates is looking less likely.

There have been few signs of market nerves ahead of the July 9th tariff deadline, as Trump said yesterday that his administration will start sending out letters to trading partners setting unilateral tariff rates, which countries would have to begin paying as of the start of next month.

Oasis starts their tour this week, if they last the tour out, that probably will be a miracle. I know many fans scrambled for tickets, however I was not one of them. For those who are going I hope it lives up to expectations