‘Til the moon rise up behind the pine, oh, Lord October road, James Taylor

The latest monthly Purchasing Managers’ Survey showed further signs of a moderate easing in global economic growth. The J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI for September 2025 indicated a slight slowdown across the manufacturing and services sectors. The Output Index decreased to 52.4 from August’s 52.9, but remains above the neutral 50.0 threshold for the thirty-second consecutive month, signalling ongoing expansion. Out of the 15 nations with available composite output PMI data, the majority (ten) experienced growth in September. However, ten of these nations also saw their output index readings drop from August, indicating either a slowdown in growth or a faster rate of contraction compared to the previous month.

There was not much good news in the UK, as the S&P Global UK Services PMI Business Activity Index fell to 50.8 in September, down from 54.2 in August, indicating a slowdown in growth to its lowest level in five months. This rather indicates that, as boards sat on their hands waiting for last October’s budget, companies will sit on their hands till they know the result of this year’s budget, which is not till late November.

OPEC agreed to a modest increase in its November oil production, adding 137,000 barrels a day next month. Oil prices traded at a four-month low over the weekend, which will help bring down inflation rates.

Looking to the week ahead, the Federal Government shutdown will have an impact on the release of US economic data. On Friday, the Bureau of Labour Statistics was supposed to release the September jobs report. The bureau withheld the data on Friday because of the federal government shutdown. The employment report is one of the key drivers expected to influence interest rates, which instead leaves economists making assumptions based on anecdotal evidence. Speculators still seem hopeful of another cut to US interest rates this month, and one more before the year’s end. Powell’s speech later in the week may give support to that view.

It’s not the busiest of weeks for economic data, but we do get the minutes of the last Fed meeting on Wednesday. That will provide further evidence as to where the Fed are in the mood to cut again in the coming months. In the UK, it’s relatively quiet; we receive some Housing Price data, new car sales, and the S&P Global Construction PMI, which is expected to show a further decline.

Equity markets continued to rise last week; however, the VIX index also increased, up over 10% in the past month. The Vix index creeping higher would suggest that someone, somewhere, is becoming more cautious about stocks, even in the short term.