The Supreme Court ruled against Trump, he did not take it well.
What a headache has been created: On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that tariffs were illegal and that Trump overstepped his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on countries around the globe. The Supreme Court ruled that Trump had exceeded his constitutional Authority. In practice, the decision specifically invalidated the “Liberation Day” tariffs (initially 10%–50%) applied to almost every U.S. trading partner since April 2025. The ruling opened the door for businesses to seek refunds for the estimated $130 billion to $175 billion already collected. Although the ruling does not affect industry-specific tariffs on products such as steel, aluminium, lumber, and automobiles, which were collected under a different act.
Trump did not hold back on expressing his displeasure at those who made the ruling, with some quite personalised attacks. Within hours of the ruling, Trump signed a proclamation imposing a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974; the following day, he raised the rate to 15%. Although stocks around the globe seemed to celebrate the ruling early on, it’s not clear that too many companies should be hoping to get a cheque back in the post anytime soon. Global stock markets appear to be opening a tad weaker this morning. On Tuesday, Trump delivers his State of the Union address to Congress; that should make for interesting viewing.
Friday was not a good day for Mr Trump all around. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for December 2025, which had been delayed by a late-2025 government shutdown. The index also rose 0.4% for the month and 2.9% year-over-year, the highest annual print since March 2024. Markets are now not expecting another rate cut until June; by then, we will have a new Fed Chair. There was some good news for the UK economy: retail sales came in better than expected, and the monthly flash PMI composite index came in ahead of expectations at 53.9. On the negative side, despite rising output, the UK reported its 17th consecutive month of job losses
In contrast, US output fell to a 10-month low, with the Composite PMI dropping to 52.3 from 53.0. Businesses cited extreme winter weather, high prices, and, you guessed it, the continued impact of tariffs.
This coming week, would you believe the end of the 2nd month of the year is coming to a close? Daffodils appeared in the garden, as the scent of spring came to the air on Sunday afternoon, as the clouds parted. NVIDIA reports on Wednesday; Home Depot and Lowe’s Companies will provide insights into consumer spending on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, when they report. US Consumer Confidence for February is released on Thursday, along with Initial Jobless Claims. On Friday, the Producer Price Index for January, another important inflation indicator, is released, alongside the Chicago PMI.
Other potential events that could impact stocks. Geopolitics is never far from the headlines, as negotiators are scheduled to meet in Geneva on Thursday for a third round of Iran-US negotiations. Fears over the state of private credit markets remain in the background, as many asset managers were hit last week amid worries about a private-credit fund managed by Blue Owl Capital, which triggered broader investor anxiety about spillover effects.