I spread news today’ oh boy

Some decent US economic data at the end of the week, as the final revision for US economic growth in the second quarter is 3.8%, a whole percentage point above the original estimate. Additionally, a slightly better employment report than expected resulted in a reduction of expectations for rate cuts. According to a Bloomberg report, the odds of two quarter-point cuts by the end of the year are now at 60%, down from 82% last week. Later today is the key event: the latest inflation report, along with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment. September is not typically a good month for US equities; on average, the S&P 500 declines by around 1% in September. Someone once conducted an analysis and concluded that this relates to returning from summer holidays, and the change in weather influences sentiment. Anyway, so far, US equities have performed relatively well this month, bucking the trend with a few days to go.

Trump is back on the tariff trail, as he announced a new wave of tariffs on Thursday, including a 100% levy on branded drug imports from October 1st,unless a company is building a factory in the US.

The flash PMIs were released this week. For the US, the composite index indicated that business activity slowed for the second month, as the index dropped from 54.6 in August to 53.6 in September. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, added, “The survey data are nevertheless still indicative of consumer inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target in the coming months.

Regarding the UK private sector, output grew for the fifth consecutive month in September 2025, but the growth rate slowed to its lowest since May, with the Composite Output Index falling to 51.0 from August’s 53.5. The Manufacturing Output Index fell sharply to 45.4 (August: 49.3), marking the fastest decline since March, driven by weak domestic and export order books. 

If you want to read Chris Williamson, take on the whole report, it was not very encouraging: “September’s flash UK PMI survey brought a litany of worrying news, including weakening growth, slumping overseas trade, worsening business confidence and further steep job losses. So not so good news. Chris does offer one ray of sunshine: the PMI indicated that price pressures have moderated in September.

The VIX fear index is higher this week, as is the dollar basket, and treasury yields across the curve are lower. Interestingly, the previously unrelenting rally in gold prices has stalled over the past week. A bit of froth coming out of the market is probably no bad thing, were it to happen.