As I look out the window, the sun rises, but theres a wind a blowing. The week ahead.

Last week’s no-worse-than-expected Consumer Price inflation data, along with marginally better-than-expected Producer Prices, and further evidence of a sluggish employment market, have all but confirmed a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed this week—the first cut in 12 months. So the question now is, could it be 50 basis points, and how dovish or hawkish will Mr Powell’s accompanying press conference be? Economists continue to point out that the data suggest the introduction of tariffs is having no material impact on the inflation figures, but could the impact be being felt elsewhere.

Forbes analysis confirms that Trump’s tariffs have generated about $96 billion since they took effect in April 2025, with monthly customs duties peaking at $28 billion in July. It strikes me that money has to come from somewhere. Some companies will have pricing power, enabling them to pass on the additional cost; others will absorb it in their margins, but history suggests that when companies face increasing margin pressures and look to reduce costs, it’s jobs that are lost as CEOS seek efficiency gains. So maybe economists are looking for the impact of tariffs in the wrong place.

Quickly summarising last week’s events, it was another decent week for US stocks with marginal gains for the S&P 500. The price of gold remains near record highs. U.S. Treasury yields across the curve have fallen since the start of the month, but showed little change last week. If anything, gilt yields have also moved slightly lower since the beginning of the month, but not by much. For example, the ten-year gilt yield has decreased from 4.8% to just below 4.7%. There has also been a modest rally in the dollar over the past five days.

Along with the Fed, policy meetings are scheduled in the UK, Japan, Canada, Brazil, Norway, and Japan, making for a busy week for central banks. There is no expectation among financial markets that the BofE will cut rates on Thursday. Additionally, a range of economic data awaits Ms Reeves in the coming days, including a labour report on Tuesday featuring average earnings and the latest unemployment rate. UK inflation is due on Wednesday, with forecasters expecting the rate to hold steady at 3.8%. On Friday, there will be updates on retail sales, public sector borrowing, and the GfK Consumer Confidence Index for September. Along with the rate decision, there is a raft of economic data this week coming out of the US. We also get the FOMC economic projections. Markets in Asia were slightly higher overnight, indicating a fairly even start to the week for European and US equity markets.