And so its Christmas, well very nearly any way

A big Thanksgiving rally saved the month from being one of the worst for equities since the April tariff fallout. In the end, most sectors, with the notable exception of technology and communication services, finished the month in positive territory. There was a general shift towards value over growth sectors in the month. If one had been away for the past month and not in communication with the world, one would have come back concluding the month had been a pretty dull one, global equities finishing the month just about where they started, the Vix fear Index likewise, the dollar a fraction weaker but not by much, along with limited change in treasury yields.

As we enter the final month of the year, we will be getting strategists’ outlooks coming into our inboxes at a fairly regular pace as they outline their views for the year ahead. One would imagine most will be positive. The tone for most will likely be that the global economy will grow, if only modestly. Chinese authorities will continue to support their economy. US interest rates will fall; some economists may differ on how much. Inflation rates will continue to drift lower, and the AI growth dividend will keep paying out. Analysts will pencil in 10% earnings growth for the year ahead, as they always do, and adjust it as the year progresses. The bears will be warning that the end is nigh for the technology sector.

Looking much more closely home and the week ahead, November’s final official PMI should reinforce the improved economic picture the flash PMIs painted at the start of last week, particularly for the US economy, as business activity growth accelerated for a second successive month, accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen so far this year. This data probably helped contribute to the recovery in stocks towards the end of November.

Aside from the monthly PMI, it’s a relatively quiet week on the data front. In the US, we get initial jobless claims on Thursday, which will probably continue to reflect a mixed picture for the employment market. Recent data indicate layoffs remained low, though the labour market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work. On Friday, we get the Michigan US consumer sentiment data. The big one will be the inflation report, in the form of the personal consumption and expenditure report, which could well influence the debate over whether the Fed cuts interest rates again in December. The forecasts are for the rate to fall from 2.8% the previous month to 2.7%.

As for the UK, Rachael Reeves’ budget continues to dominate the news; I guess it’s fair to say her position is looking less certain than it was. Should she be forced out, it’s hard to determine who her replacement could be and how the capital markets would react to the news. As for this morning, equity markets are looking to open slightly on the softer side.helped contribute to the recovery in stocks towards the end of November.

Aside from the monthly PMI, it’s a relatively quiet week on the data front. In the US, we get initial jobless claims on Thursday, which will probably continue to reflect a mixed picture for the employment market. Recent data indicate layoffs remained low, though the labour market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work. On Friday, we get the Michigan US consumer sentiment data. The big one will be the inflation report, in the form of the personal consumption and expenditure report, which could well influence the debate over whether the Fed cuts interest rates again in December. The forecasts are for the rate to fall from 2.8% the previous month to 2.7%.

As for the UK, Rachael Reeves’ budget continues to dominate the news; I guess it’s fair to say her position is looking less certain than it was. Should she be forced out, it’s hard to determine who her replacement could be and how the capital markets would react to the news. As for this morning, equity markets are looking to open slightly on the softer side.