A generally quiet week ahead of the Easter Break

Stocks and bond markets cheered the central banker’s affirmation in the past week, that we should start to see rate cuts in the coming months from leading developed economies. When and by how much is still a little undecided, but expectations are for a June start. Commodity markets did not seem to join in as oil, copper, and gold markets, which all finished moderately lower on the week. The fear Vix gauge likewise fell back to lows, once again suggesting investors have confidence in the markets in the coming months. The dollar basket has been trending higher recently, which continued last week. On the economic front in the US, economic data continues to suggest a resilient economy as the Philly Fed index remained above zero, and the index and the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI increased slightly to a 22-month high.

The desire to chase the AI revolution went unabated last week with two blowout listings. Semiconductor connectivity firm Astera Labs and social media platform Reddit both debut this week. The former jumped 72% on day one, the latter nearly 50%.

What are we looking out for this week? Probably what has the potential to make the loudest noise will be the monthly Personal and Consumption expenditure index, which economists forecast an increase of 0.4% month over month. We get Durable Goods orders where a fall of 1% is expected, largely put at the door of Boeing. Reebok Chain Store sales and Conference Boards Consumer Confidence headline index, both of which are expected to show a modest increase. We also get initial jobless claims as well as the third estimate for GDP. So, there is plenty for bond and equity markets to get their teeth into for the US. Jerome Powell will again be addressing an assembled mass, probably only to reiterate his statement from last week.

It’s a quieter week for Europe, Asia, and the UK ahead of the four-day Easter break. On Wednesday, we get the Lloyds business barometer. In Europe, there is some inflation data, economic business sentiment, and final consumer confidence for the Euro Area.

Stock markets look like they will start the week taking a breather and slightly on the back foot