A busy week ahead for economists
As is always the case for Thanksgiving, America takes most of the week off and the Rest of the World uses the excuse to do the same. Stock markets crept higher, the Vix fear gauge fell to new lows for the year, the dollar basket did very little, gold jumped up over 2000 dollars an ounce and the price of oil moved around a bit as speculators tried to make sense of what the delay to the OPEC meant for supply. The bond market likewise had an uneventful week.
The coming week will be a greater test for investors as it is a relatively busy one on the macro front, including speeches from both Christine Laggard the Chair of the ECB, and Jerome Powell of the Fed. They will tow the same line they have been for some time, basically, it’s too early to toll the bell signaling the death of inflation. Talking of which this week we get the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure prices data, personal income and spending, along with the ISM manufacturing PMI. We also get the latest CB Consumer Confidence report, are Americans still willing to spend all those free dollars handed to them during lockdown? Along with the 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP, which is expected to be revised upwards from 4.9% to 5%. PCE price inflation is expected to fall to 3.1% its lowest level since March 2021.
Inflation reports from some of the major blocks in Europe, including Germany and France as well as the euro area as a whole will also be noteworthy. China we get the services and manufacturing PMIs towards the end of the week. As for the UK the Bank of England’s monetary figures along with the CBI distributive trades report will be the focus.
Equity markets will be opening a little softer this morning, after 4 straight weeks of gains something of a pullback would not be a surprise. All eyes particularly that of Mr Powell will be watching the data as the week unfolds.