Nasdaq up for 10 straight days.

It would appear that stock markets have shrugged off the fears of March and, once again, are happy to climb the wall of worry. Uncertainty around geopolitics, central bank policy, oil prices, and the actions of a President which seem to adapt with the wind, to name the most prescient at the moment. In early January, sentiment saw nothing but blue skies for the year ahead, but suddenly had those convictions severely tested. Was ever thus: when all the marginal investors are fully invested, there’s little to prop up the market when the clouds appear. The sun appears to have broken through the clouds again, as the S&P 500 is now higher than when the conflict started. Two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which were closer to 4% a few weeks ago, have likewise rallied back, suggesting the market is less concerned that the Fed would raise rates. If bond markets continue to recover, one imagines it will provide further support for equities. The Vix fear index is back below its long-term average.

Earnings season is upon us. Goldman Sachs blew the lights out yesterday, and JPMorgan pretty much the same. As is often the case, Jamie Dimon, the group’s long-standing CEO, offered words of caution when delivering the results, warning of an “increasingly complex set of risks” facing the global economy. The world gets more complex, the risks get higher, was ever thus. Once again, he flagged his worry about the $1.8 trillion private credit market for its lack of transparency and rigorous valuations, suggesting it could face a sharp sell-off if conditions deteriorate. I would argue that anything can sell off if conditions deteriorate; it’s a question of how much and whether the risks are likely to be systemic, as was the case with the mortgage market in 2007. I guess another brick in the wall of worry.

The two most influential Fund Manager Surveys, released monthly, are the Merrill Lynch and S&P Global IMI surveys. The former, which reported at the start of the year that fund managers were at their most bullish, has had a change of tune as sentiment is at its lowest level in almost a year. Global equity allocation fell to a net 13% overweight from 37% the prior month, the lowest since July 2025. According to S&P Global, “April has seen a tentative return of investor risk appetite after the risk aversion witnessed in March”. Both reports seem to indicate a healthier, more cautious outlook from the Fund Management community than at the start of the year.

At the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, the IMF presented its updated growth scenarios: weaker, worse, and severe, depending on how the war unfolds. To be fair, theirs is mostly guesswork, as is ours.