As commentators pour over the local election results, Trump heads to China next week.

Have local elections in the UK been so eagerly anticipated, seen as a possible window on what may happen at the next General Election? The results of these elections were expected to answer some questions for all parties. Will Kemis’s improved popularity as a leader feed through into a better picture for the wider party and bring back some disaffected Tories? Any signs that the British public is slowly allowing them off the naughty step? Will the Reforms’ apparent rise in popularity be confirmed when it comes to voters not just saying they will vote for them, but actually putting a tick in the box when push comes to shove? Will the outcome be the final coup de grâce for Sir Kier?  What about Mr Polanski and the Green Party? How will they fare?

The important question is, could the outcome of the local elections also have any economic implications? I doubt it. Early indications are that the Labour Party will do as badly as anticipated, possibly making Starmer’s position even more difficult. Reform looks like they are receiving the anticipated support. Speculators may fear that Starmer could take a dramatic step in response to the outcome. Maybe throw Reeves under the metaphorical bus. Bring in Ed Miliband, as has been rumoured, but I’m not sure the bond market would like that one. He is the favourite in the polls if Reeves were replaced. The probability is that Starmer will hang on, whatever the outcome. The result of these elections is unlikely to change the Bank of England’s stance. Any market reaction to the results, good and bad, will be seen first in the bond market.

As the world focuses on the Iran conflict and the hope of a conclusion, attention may turn next week to Trump and his meeting with Xi in Beijing. In theory, the two are there to meet and discuss, asking for China to commit to buy, amongst other things, Boeing aircraft. Continue discussions around trade agreements and extend current trade truces. Forming a “Board of Investment” to address roadblocks to specific company investments. But as they say, many a slip can happen between cup and lip. This should be a positive for the two men meeting, and hopefully it will be. Iran is likely to come up in discussion, and this gathering may help support the peace process. Beijing has avoided taking a strong public position. China has quietly urged Tehran to consider a U.S. peace deal, whilst at the same time, it has apparently maintained support for the regime. The one thing we know about Trump is that he rarely does what is predicted of him.